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Will Irma Stay as a Cat 4 or Intensify up Entire West Florida Coast?

NOTE: Periodic updates provided

Sunday at 5 a.m. EST, Irma slowly moved through 32 C (89.6 F) waters just south of Key West. The warm water intensified the storm to Cat 4. As it cleared Key West, the water temp dropped to 29 C. Forecasters are looking for that to dial the storm down to Cat 3 as it passes Naples.

Notice the swath of 31 C water off the shore of Ft. Meyers and Tampa. Some of the models, as of this writing, are looking for Irma’s eye to torque more east along the coast and hug inland. This keeps the storm at Cat 3. However, if the storm stays further off shore in the warm water, it could intensify to Cat 4 and point the right quadrant directly at Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg and Sarasota.

BPEarthwatch explains the steering process. There is a line of dry air to the west. If it stays relatively intact, it will sheer the storm some and steer it inland, dissipating the storm.

However, this morning BPEarthwatch updated the out-front wave and commented that it’s bending back. This will enable Irma to stay in the warm 31 C waters and maintain Cat 4 strength. This would hit Tampa Bay at night. The Navy model keeps Irma offshore in warm waters all the way to Tallahassee. High tide along the coast is at roughly 3:00 a.m. Monday give or take an hour.

Impact of a six-foot storm surge on Tampa Bay.

TNN takeaway: This storm will depopulate large areas of Florida. Hundreds of thousands if not several million will be displaced, not to return for the indefinite future. Even the prospect of living in mold-infested dwellings will be untenable. Combined with Harvey, the second and third derivative impacts will be enormous. This is a knockout blow.

Tampa Bat heat forecast post-hurricane: miserable, humid, hot, all week, without A/C

Meanwhile, and this is hard to believe, the latest GFS run has hurricane Jose directly hitting New York City on Sept. 20. You can’t make this stuff up. Somehow I doubt the weather manipulators would permit a hit on Gotham; but if you are anywhere close, heads up.

Update 19:00 UT : Another solar storm from X8.2 flare.

Followup on Mexican mega-quake slippage has set off activity all along the Ring of Fire. In particular, note swarms at Juan de Fuca plate off of Oregon, a likely release spot. Dutchsinse sees the next few days as very active.

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  • Sara Reimold

    Is DC next?

    • Torchy Blane

      Flood the swamp!

  • Mudhole

    The US government, along with other major powers, signed a UN treaty in 1976 outlawing the use of weather modification as an instrument of warfare. Why would such a treaty be necessary, or even considered, unless the technology to modify weather already existed?

    I have a bad feeling that a major part of US infrastructure might well be wiped out by a series of these hurricanes, and the resulting damage blamed on the Chinese or the Russians.